What is the Delphi Technique?

     The Delphi technique is “a judgemental forecasting procedure for obtaining, exchanging, and developing informed opinion about future events” (Dunn, 2008, p. 180).  More specifically, Linstone and Turoff (2002) describe it as “a method for structuring a groups’ communication process so that the process is effective in allowing a group of individuals as a whole, to deal with a complex problem” (as cited in Vernon, 2009, p. 69).

     The Delphi technique was developed by researchers of the Rand Corporation in 1948 and was "named after Apollo's shrine at Delphi, where Greek oracles sought to foresee the future" (Dunn, 2008, p. 180).  It was originally utilized to forecast problems with military strategies but has since been applied to the areas of: education, healthcare, technology, media, research, technology, etc (Dunn, 2008).

     The Delphi technique is one example of a group of research procedures known as the formal consensus development methods, which are considered when there is limited evidence or when evidence is contradictory in a specific area (Vernon, 2009). Consensus is considered to be an opinion, which is accepted by more than a basic majority, or by those with power (Vernon, 2009). The purpose of these methods is to identify the extent of agreement over a certain issue (consensus measurement) and in doing so, to overcome the disadvantages normally found with group decision making (Vernon, 2009).

The Delphi technique was designed to avoid the following group communication failures:

·         domination of one or more members of the group;

·         pressures to conform to the group’s opinion;

·          personality or interpersonal conflicts; and

·         the difficulty of two opposing individuals of power (Dunn, 2008).